Strategy development and forecasting in aviation, travel and tourism

Indicators

Important

Jet fuel prices have had a critical influence on airline and route decisions over recent years.  Oil prices levelled out over 2011-13, but at historic high levels, impacting on airline costs and profitability.  The 2013 average price of crude oil (Brent) at USD109 per barrel was still 12% up on the 2008 peak price.  However with prices falling to USD62 in December 2014, the lowest monthly price since May 2009, the average for 2014 fell to just over USD99 a barrel.  The EIA has reduced its forecast annual price per barrel for 2015 to USD58.

Insights

Important

Airline mergers, consolidations, bilateral agreements and alliances continue to grow as airlines attempt to cut costs, extend networks and improve competitiveness.  The global airline alliances continue to build their presence in Asia, particularly in China.  Bilateral alliances and joint ventures are constantly evolving, often operating between individual airlines aligned to the same global alliance, but also operating between members of different alliances and between non-aligned and aligned airlines.